We tested news sentiment. It doesn't predict the market.

One of the most-sold ideas in retail trading is trading news sentiment: buy the positive, sell the negative. Sounds logical. We tested it seriously, live, with statistical power.

The honest verdict: the mean per trade is indistinguishable from zero, with a p-value that concludes nothing. Widening the sample shows no robust signal either. The wall, as almost always at short horizons, is cost.

We publish it because honesty is the product. If someone sells you news signals with hype, ask for the p-value and the net-of-cost return.