Honest experiments
Quantitative strategies and honest backtesting: what we tested and didn't work, with the numbers. Publishing the null results is part of the brand.
48 days of live forward testing: the full scoreboard, including the strategy that is down 10.6%
We seeded eleven strategies in paper on June 18th and committed to publishing the result win or lose. Here it is in full: the one beating the market (and how much of that edge evaporates against the right benchmark), the one collapsing, the one we already called a mirage — and why after 48 days none of it means anything yet.
Read →We put OKX's 50 most-copied traders under the microscope: the showcase shines, persistence says noise
6,496 exchange-verified trades over 3 months, serious statistics: 9 of 24 traders look like geniuses — until the persistence test. Here's how a copy-trading leaderboard manufactures its shine.
Read →The truth about Binance grid bots
We backtested the most popular grid bots on real history. They win sideways, sink in the crash, and the 7-day drawdown hides the risk. The numbers, unvarnished.
Read →Now we validate grid bots from 7 exchanges, not just Binance
We expanded the free tool: paste any grid bot from Binance, Bybit, OKX, KuCoin, Bitget, Gate.io or MEXC and we'll tell you the truth on real history.
Read →Paste any Binance bot and we'll tell you the truth
New free tool: paste any Binance grid bot's URL and we backtest it on the fly over real history, no make-up.
Read →What we have today (and what we don't): an honest status
No smoke: what's built and working, what's in forward validation, and what doesn't exist yet.
Read →Why your backtest lies: survivorship bias
If you test your strategy only on the companies still in the index today, you measure a return that never existed.
Read →We tested news sentiment. It doesn't predict the market.
Catalyst-news sentiment measured live: indistinguishable from zero (and, with cost, negative). The numbers, unvarnished.
Read →Cost: the wall that knocks down most short-term signals
Many strategies win gross and lose net. Over short horizons, fees and spread eat the edge.
Read →What an honest verdict is: why a high Sharpe isn't enough
Date-clustered bootstrap, PSR and percentage of positive years. How we decide if a strategy truly beats chance.
Read →Overfitting: how a thousand variants fool you without noticing
Try enough combinations and one will look like gold by pure chance. Here's how we control overfitting.
Read →Horizon matters: why the edge lives at a month, not intraday
We tested from 1 minute to several months. The sweet spot with real edge is 1–3 months, not the short term.
Read →Stock ranking vs. market timing: what really works
Guessing when the market rises or falls came out null again and again. Ranking which stocks to hold did not.
Read →When long-only beats long/short (and why)
Shorting doesn't always add: it has borrow cost and, in certain regimes, losing on the short leg destroys the result.
Read →Market regime: sometimes the best trade is to sit out
A regime filter that keeps you in cash at the wrong moment can be worth more than any selection signal.
Read →Academic backing vs. promises: telling signal from marketing
A credible edge usually has peer-reviewed literature behind it. If it only has a pretty chart, be skeptical.
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