No hype · survivorship-free · net of costs
The truth about a strategy, not a rosy backtest.
S&P 500 strategies validated free of survivorship bias, net of costs, with a statistical verdict. And we also publish what doesn't work.
The problem
Almost every backtest lies.
They ignore companies that went bankrupt or left the index (survivorship bias) and show returns that never existed.
They don't subtract costs: over short horizons, fees eat the supposed edge.
They overfit: they try a thousand variants and publish the one that won by chance.
Without survivorship-free data, net-of-cost returns and statistical power, a backtest proves nothing.
What we do differently
Survivorship-free
We test on the point-in-time S&P 500, including companies that were removed or went bankrupt.
Net of costs
Every rebalance subtracts real costs. If the edge doesn't survive costs, we say so.
With a verdict
Date-clustered bootstrap, PSR and % of positive years decide whether it beats chance. PASS or FAIL.
Núcleo S&P 500
Each month it selects ~25 S&P 500 stocks with a favorable positioning profile (lightly shorted). Long-only, no leverage. Backed by Boehmer-Huszár-Jordan (2010, JFE).
Backtest figures (survivorship-free simulation, net of costs). Not real trading.
The product
Compare, see the curve, judge for yourself.
Choose how much you'd invest and with what parameters: each strategy is ranked by return, with its equity curve. All survivorship-free.
How it works
You choose
Investment and period in the comparator.
You see the verdict
Net return, Sharpe, max drawdown and curve — survivorship-free.
You follow the forward
Winners run live (paper) to see whether the edge holds.
We also tell you what doesn't work
We tested news sentiment, intraday, GDELT and small-caps. They came out null. Instead of hiding it, we publish it with the numbers.
Read the honest experiments →Why it's credible
We don't promise to make you rich: the edge is real but modest (Sharpe ~1 long-only). It's backed by the literature, not by our marketing.
Boehmer, Huszár & Jordan (2010, JFE): lightly shorted stocks earn ~1% monthly alpha.
Rapach, Ringgenberg & Zhou (2016, JFE): short interest, “the strongest known predictor”.
Frequently asked questions
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