Trend BTC+ETH down 3.37% on the week, the only bot in the red

The biggest move of the week was a loss. Trend BTC+ETH fell 3.37% and was the only one of the six bots to close the week down. Cumulative since seeding is still +14.15% (NAV 114,149) after 131 days, seeded 21-Jun-2026, last NAV 29-Oct. It has no comparison against the house yardstick because it started on a different date, so that +14.15% stands alone.

There were no crossings this week: no portfolio switched sides relative to the benchmark. The yardstick, an equal-weighted basket of the 500 S&P 500 members as of the start date measured over a common window (18-Jun to 29-Oct), sits at +5.48%. The week before it was +4.98%.

Of the four bots with a valid comparison, only one is above it: Core S&P 500, at +7.53% since seeding and +2.05 percentage points over the benchmark. It added 1.80% on the week and moved from +5.63% to +7.53% cumulative. NAV 107,504 over 93 days.

Two of the three below the line are not far off. Diversified Basket is at +4.53% (week +0.95%, -0.95 pp vs benchmark) and Tactical Defensive at +3.55% (week +0.49%, -1.93 pp). Both are up, just less than the equal-weighted basket.

Momentum + Core had the best week of the group, +2.76%, improving its cumulative from -13.93% to -11.55%. That does not change the picture: it is still 17.03 percentage points behind the benchmark, with a NAV of 88,430 against the 100,000 starting point. It is the worst result in the project and one good week does not fix it.

Multi-asset 6 classes has been running 49 days: +0.49% since seeding (21-Aug), +0.31% on the week, NAV 100,470. It is also outside the common-window comparison because of its start date.

On the events work, forward multipliers read: baseline 0.881 with n=12,408; earnings 1.191 with n=785; guidance 1.062 with n=74; exec 0.927 with n=295. What matters is the distance from the baseline, not the raw ratio. Earnings is the only group that separates clearly from the baseline in forward data. In backtest (not live trading) the same groups give 1.089 for earnings, 1.154 for guidance and 1.115 for exec, against a backtest baseline of 0.964: guidance and exec look better in backtest than forward, which is a reason for caution rather than a finding.

Maintenance: the benchmark has been corrected in the notes of 31-Aug, 4-Sep and 12-Oct, with conclusions unchanged. The cause was a reused ticker (POM) that inflated the benchmark from 4.12% to 8.36%; only S&P 500 members as of the start date are counted now.

None of this is investment advice. All strategies remain in simulation, and what gets published is what was measured, including the numbers that came out badly.