November rebalance: Núcleo S&P 500 swaps 18 of 25 positions and drops below the benchmark

On 2 November, the first trading day of the month, the five calendar-driven bots rebalanced. Núcleo S&P 500 swapped 18 of its 25 positions and Momentum + Núcleo 14 of 25. Cesta Diversificada kept the same 22. Defensivo Táctico and Multiactivo 6 clases each added one position, going from 4 to 5. We do not publish the holdings here. Trend BTC+ETH does not rebalance on a calendar.

A few days later came the session that accounts for most of the week. On 5 November the equal-weighted average of current S&P 500 members fell 3.11% (503 names). That day Núcleo S&P 500 lost 4.58% and Momentum + Núcleo 8.15%. Since the rebalance, the first is down 4.97% and the second 8.94%. It is far too early to judge this month's rotation: what shows up is mostly one bad session.

That drop pushes Núcleo S&P 500 to the other side of the benchmark. As of 29 October it stood at 7.53% since seeding with the benchmark at 5.48%. As of 5 November it stands at 2.68% with the benchmark at 4.61%, 1.93 percentage points behind. It is the only crossing this week. Its week was -4.50%, with NAV at 102,663 after 98 sessions since 18 June. The benchmark fell too, but by less.

None of the four bots measured against the benchmark is above it any more. Defensivo Táctico is at 0.96% (-3.65 pp versus the benchmark) after a -2.50% week. Cesta Diversificada is at -0.82% (-5.43 pp) after falling 5.12%. A week earlier both were positive: 3.55% and 4.53%.

The worst remains Momentum + Núcleo: -16.67% on the week and -26.29% since 18 June, with NAV at 73,693 and 30.9 percentage points below the benchmark. A week earlier it stood at -11.55%, so it lost more this week than in everything before it since launch. 5 November alone took 8.15% off it.

The two bots not measured against the benchmark, because they started on other dates: Trend BTC+ETH is at 7.80% since 21 June (NAV 107,802) after a -5.13% week. Multiactivo 6 clases is at -1.46% since 21 August (NAV 98,524), -1.94% on the week. All six bots closed the week negative.

On the events work, the forward multipliers read: baseline 0.881 (n=13,151), earnings 1.287 (n=1,013), guidance 1.089 (n=82) and exec 0.937 (n=317). In backtest (not live operation) the same groups give 1.089, 1.154 and 1.115, against a baseline of 0.964. What counts is the distance from baseline, not the raw ratio, and on that measure all three sit above their baseline in both samples. Earnings stands out far more forward than in backtest; exec the other way round.

None of this is investment advice. All strategies remain in simulation, and what we publish is what we measure, including the numbers that come out badly.