Event calendar
This week's event calendar
Which S&P 500 names report earnings this week, and how much extra dispersion we measured after that kind of event. It says how much a stock tends to move, not which way.
Dispersion, not direction
The multiplier measures how much more than usual a stock moved after an event of that type. It does not say whether it goes up or down: predicting direction sits in our graveyard of signals, and it stays there.
Average over a 5-session window
It is the average realised volatility over the [t0, t0+5] window divided by the name's own prior volatility. It is not how much a specific name will move today: it is a cohort average over a window.
Information, not advice
The options market already prices this volatility; there is nothing to buy with it. It helps you know what is on the agenda before you decide. It does not decide for you.
Earnings scheduled this week
S&P 500 names with an earnings release in the coming days, per the calendar. Measured multiplier for earnings: ×1.089 (average over the 5-session window, not a per-day or per-name value).
Data as of 2026-08-20
| Day | Before the open | After the close | Time not confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|
Monday, August 24 0 names | — | — | — |
Tuesday, August 25 1 name | — | INTU | — |
Wednesday, August 26 9 names | SJMWSM | ACRMCRWDHPQNVDASNPSVEEV | — |
Thursday, August 27 8 names | BBYDGDLTRHRL | ADSKMRVLULTAWDAY | — |
Friday, August 28 0 names | — | — | — |
Open windows
Names with an event already published whose 5-session window we measure is still open.
The three event types that move volatility
Seven types measured over 5,211 news items with a catalyst (2026-06 → 2026-08). Ratio = realised volatility over [t0, t0+5] divided by the name's prior volatility; days with no event: 0.964. p from a date-clustered bootstrap; Benjamini-Hochberg deflation at 10%.
| Type | n | Ratio | p | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured and significant | ||||
| Earnings | 1,449 | 1.089 | < 0.0001 | Quarterly results release. This was the sanity check: it had to come out elevated, and it did. |
| Executives | 267 | 1.115 | < 0.0001 | CEO/CFO changes or statements. Without filtering news attribution the effect fades, so the noise was noise. |
| Guidance | 52 | 1.154 | 0.0141 | Guidance revisions. The largest effect, but also the smallest sample: the least precise of the three. |
| Measured and discarded | ||||
| Analyst ratings | 2,972 | 0.914 | 1.000 | Noise. It is 42% of classified news and does not lift volatility above no-event days. |
| Mergers & acquisitions | 201 | 0.878 | 0.996 | Reduces volatility: after an offer the stock anchors to the offer price and stops moving with the market. |
| Regulatory | 217 | 0.920 | 0.929 | Indistinguishable from a no-event day. |
| Capital actions | 53 | 0.962 | 0.515 | Indistinguishable from a no-event day. |
Multipliers are published at their pre-registered values even though the attribution-filtered subgroups measure slightly higher: they err on the conservative side, and tuning them to the same data they were measured on would be cheating.
Get the week's calendar every Sunday, with the measured multiplier.
Free. No direction, no advice.